Leaflets, also known as pyeora, are like paper bombs. Distributing leaflets is the most representative form of psychological warfare, essentially an act of war. The Korean Peninsula has been in a state of armistice since July 1953, meaning the war is merely paused. While armed conflicts have occurred during this armistice period, there has been no armed conflict between the South and the North since the April 27, 2018, inter-Korean summit. However, since 2023, a silent war of leaflet distribution has begun between the South and the North. This was triggered by the Constitutional Court's ruling on September 26, 2023, which declared Article 24-1-3 of the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act, also known as the "anti-leaflet distribution law," unconstitutional. The Constitutional Court ruled that the provision banning the distribution of leaflets to North Korea "excessively restricts freedom of expression" and that the penalty of "imprisonment of up to three years or a fine of up to 30 million won" violates the freedom of expression guaranteed by the Constitution and the principle of proportionality. Following the unconstitutional ruling on the anti-leaflet distribution law in September 2023, groups such as the Free North Korea Movement, led by Park Sang-hak, have distributed leaflets to North Korea on several occasions until early June 2024. As a result, North Korea has retaliated by indiscriminately sending piles of trash and garbage to the South since last week. It is fortunate that there has been no armed conflict between the South and the North, as South Korea refrained from taking military action when these garbage-filled balloons crossed the border.

However, how long can this continue without an armed conflict, with only leaflets and garbage being exchanged? From the perspective of residents in border areas, it is unlikely to last more than six months. In the current state of hostility and enmity between the South and the North, can enmity and internal cohesion be heightened solely through paper bombs? No, the distribution of leaflets, or psychological warfare, is merely a justification for armed conflict. If an armed conflict occurs in the border areas, who will suffer more? According to a NEWS Korea article dated December 26, 2022, North Korea's trade volume is only 0.1% of South Korea's. If the two Koreas were to engage in armed conflict, foreign investments in South Korea would rapidly withdraw, and South Korea's economy, which relies heavily on trade (over 80%), would suffer a significant blow. However, North Korea, which is already subject to the maximum level of international sanctions, would suffer very little. The moment the exchange of paper bombs between the South and the North escalates into even a minor armed conflict, farmers working within the Military Demarcation Line in border areas will be prohibited from entering. Additionally, tourists visiting restaurants in the Provence, Heyri, and Paju tourism districts near the border, as well as Imjingak, would instantly disappear.

Only 947 North Koreans defected in the 45 years leading up to 1998. [Source: Ministry of Unification]

What is the efficacy of distributing leaflets to North Korea? Before the "Arduous March" period, when North Korea experienced severe floods and famine from 1995 to 1997, leading to the collapse of socialist policies such as free meals and widespread starvation, only 947 North Koreans defected in the 45 years since the armistice in 1953, according to the Ministry of Unification.

A commemorative stamp, provided by Ahn Jae-young, has been issued by North Korea's State Stamp Printing Bureau to celebrate the successful test launch of its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, which is estimated to have a range capable of reaching North America.

This indicates that North Korea is emphasizing to its people that it has secured its regime's safety through a strategic weapons system, while simultaneously declaring its readiness for all-out confrontation with the outside world.

Source: http://www.tongilnews.com